EU rooftop solar photovoltaic potential - Published 2019 August
A great article with great references and details is located here: Italy-Turns-Its-Back-On-Russian-Gas ? or here in another article: growing-dependent-on-russia-the-gas-routes-in-europe ~*~As mentioned by my Italian friend, Fiorello, during our tour around the Umbria Region, the Italian peninsula experiences seismic (earthquake) activity as a result of the Adriatic tectonic micro-plate. One impact is zero nuclear power plants on the Italian peninsula (for safety concerns). Italy therefore relies heavily on natural gas imports from Russia and others to generate 45 percent of total electricity in Italy. [1] [2] The below research paper published in August 2019 proposes what the Italians already seem to recognize - an investment in solar power would create a more self-sustaining energy plan for the Italian Peninsula. This research considers factors such as the economic financial capacity of the country to invest and deploy, as well as the reality of the weather and climate of the locations, optimal roof capacities, and other factors. In contrast, the nearby regions in the Baltic countries are not as favorable or feasible an option or investment. The Italian Peninsula has a variation of optimal to less optimal regions and localities, but overall very favorable - showing (Photovoltaic) PV-produced electricity is cheaper by 42% in Italy (over the 2016 price - which is roughly equal to 2019 price). Regional and local site conditions that may impact are the Apennines Mountain range and elevations, temperature and weather (clear or overcast). I did not find the original Raster Data to gain more granular map, yet it should be available. Electricity prices for households, March 2019 (kWh, Euro) : Italy = 0.23 Euro/kWh ; USA = 0.13 Euro/kWh. { for Business = Italy = 0.20 ; USA = 0.10 } [1] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/873552/energy-mix-in-italy/ [2] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/787720/natural-gas-imports-by-country-of-origin-in-italy/ [3] - https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/ (free data) UPDATED NOTE: If the other proposed pipelines arrive to Italy from the East Meditteranian fields by new pipelines / Egypt liquification -- or when the Russian complete adding the second pipe to the under the Baltic Sea pipeline... What factors may contribute to a lower or higher cost of natural gas to Italy ? Time will tell...
2019-December (UPDATE) U.S. sanctions on Russia (reported in press) impact on the second leg being added (i.e. - next to existing pipeline... i.e. Ukraine, etc.)
RESEARCH PAPER EXCERPTS FOLLOW:
A high-resolution geospatial assessment of the rooftop solar photovoltaic potential in the European Union
a European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
b European Institute of Innovation & Technology (EIT), Budapest, Hungary
online 7 August 2019 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109309 Under a Creative Commons licence : open access
Highlights
An innovative method combines geospatial/statistical data to create raster of technical potential of solar rooftop in the EU.
Different datasets and sources are integrated to estimate the available rooftop area.
In many EU Member States, the levelised solar electricity can be produced at a lower cost than retail electricity prices.
Economic drivers (e.g. different weighted average cost of capital, retail electricity prices) outweigh technical factors.
Rooftop systems could cover up to 24.4% of the EU electricity consumption (based on 2016 levels).
~*~*~
Specific countries such as Germany, France, Italy, Spain stand out in the maps as they host the highest economic potential that translates to more options for advantageous investments. Competitive LCOE in these countries only partially comes from a favourable solar resource; lower cost of finances (WACC) combined with higher retail electricity prices are important cost-efficiency drivers [49].
2017 prices for Germany, Spain, Italy and France
at 30.5, 23.0, 21.3 and 16.9 EURcent/kWh, ...
(Photovoltaic) PV-produced electricity is cheaper
by 49%, 44%, 42% and 23%, respectively.
Contrary to this case stand countries of Eastern EU (Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Estonia) mainly due to their low retail prices (9.5–12 EURcent/kWh).
~*~*~
Fig. 6. Technical potential of rooftop solar PV systems in each EU Member State expressed in GWh/year. The colour of the columns shows what share of the technical potential can be produced at each LCOE band. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)
~*~*~
Fig. 7. Technical electricity potential of rooftop PV in the current EU building stock and share (%) of the cost-competitive technical potential.
~*~*~
(b). Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) - the POTENTIAL based on environmental conditions.
~ 6.19 EURcent / kWh in areas with optimal solar electricity potential (Cyprus)
~ 32 EURcent / kWh in less advantageous locations (i.e. - temperature, sunshine/cloud cover )
Fig. 5. Map of the WACC values (5a), source and spatial distribution of the LCOE (5b) of rooftop solar PV systems in the EU as resulted from the present analysis.
The output of the developed algorithm resulted in a Europe-wide LCOE layer with a 5 km spatial resolution (Fig. 5b).
The minimum value of LCOE is equal to 6.2 EURcent/kWh for areas with high solar electricity potential (Cyprus)
while the maximum value LCOE 32.1 EURcent/kWh corresponds to less advantageous locations.
The variability of the financial cost (WACC) is a key point to explain why LCOE is not always correlated to the CF values. Countries with good solar electricity potential (e.g. Greece, Romania, Bulgaria) have a high cost of capital, while several EU Member States with less favourable solar potential (e.g. Denmark, Belgium) have lower production cost (LCOE) due to their access to cheaper finance.
~*~*~
DATASET(S) USED (& SOURCE)
Table 1. Datasets used in the methodology and their source.
Name
Acronym
Type
Year
Description
1.
European Settlement Map
ESM
raster data
2016
Spatial raster dataset that maps human settlements in Europe
2.
European Urban Atlas
EUA
vector data
2012
High-resolution land cover map for urban areas 50 000 population
3.
The CORINE Land Cover
CLC
raster data
2012
Inventory on land cover of the EU and other European countries
4.
Reference digital cadastre
PDOK
vector data
2016
High-resolution, vector-based data for buildings in the Netherlands
5.
Solar irradiance data
CM SAF
raster map
2016
Solar radiation estimates based on satellite images and re-analysis
6.
Retail electricity prices
Eurostat
country statistics
2017
Average national price charged to medium size household including taxes and levies
7.
Electricity consumption
Eurostat
country statistics info
2016
Annual final consumption of electrical energy per MS
Comments
Post a Comment